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ðÄí¼ý±Ð±Â¤Éµ¥¥Nªí§@ Tang Yingchan and Fen-May Liou (2010), ¡§Does Firm
Performance Reveal its Own Causes? The Role of Bayesian Inference,¡¨ Strategic
Management Journal , 31: 39-57 °|µû: UT-Dallas
top 24 leading business journals ¥»¤H¹L¥hªº¬ã¨s¤@ª½¥H¶Ç²Îªº¦æ¾P4P¥H¤Î®ø¶OªÌ¦æ¬°¬°¥D¡A¥]¬A s ¼s§i»P·s²£«~ªº¦]ªGÃö«Y (Holak
and Tang 1990, Best Paper Award at the
US Southeast Annual Marketing Doctoral Symposium, appeared in Journal of
marketing later)¡A s ³Ð·s²£«~ÂX´²²z½×(Tang,
Huang, and Liou 2008, Best Paper Award)¡A s ³t¬y°Ê®ø¶O©Ê°Ó«~«P¾P (ðÄí¼ý,Áé©{ÀM,±i¶¶¥þ 2007,
ðÄí¼ý,§d±ÓµØ,´^©y§g2009)¡A s B2B«~µP©µ¦ù(Tang,
Liou, and Peng 2008) s ¤¤°ê¹s°â³q¸ôªº½ÆÂøºt¤Æ (Tang
and Lee 1998, ðÄí¼ý»P®]¾¤ 1999 (³Ì¨Î½×¤å¼ú)¡F®]¾¤»PðÄí¼ý1999)¡A s ®ø¶OªÌ¦æ¬°(Kau,
Tang and Ghosh 2003;ðÄí¼ý,§d±ÓµØ,ªLßN¯ø) s ¦æ¾P¼Ò«¬(Ying-Chan Tang, Yu-Mei Wang and Jiun-Yan
Huang;±i¶¶¥þ,ðÄí¼ý,§d¥þ¯q) s ¦æ¾P²z½×(Tang
and Lee 1999)¡A¥H¤Î s °ê»Ú¦æ¾P (Tang
2005, Tang and Liu 1998)µ¥¬ÛÃö¬ã¨s¡C ¦b¥æ¤j¬ÛÄ~¶}±Â³Õ¤h¯Z»PEMBA¯Zªº°ª¶¥½Òµ{«á(»â¾É²Î±s¡A¦æ¾P²z½×¡A¦æ¾P¤uµ{)¡A¦b±Ð¾Ç»P¬ã¨sªº¤¬¬Û´þªø¤U¡A¥»¤H¶}©l¹Á¸Õ¸ó»â°ìªº¬ã¨s¡A¬ã¨sªºÄ³ÃD¥]¬A s »´¸ê²£¾Ô²¤(ðÄí¼ý,¼Bªâ¬ü,¶ÀÄ_¼z 2007; Liou,
Tang, and Huang 2008, Best Paper Award)¡A s ²£·~µ¦²¤±Ú¸s (ðÄí¼ý, ¤ý¸Î¤¯, ¼Bªâ¬ü, 张©°Ùç 2007)¡A s ²Õ´¦æ¬°(ðÄí¼ý,§d±ÓµØ,ªL¨Î¼z,§º«Ø§»2009)¡A¥H¤Î s ¥ø·~¶EÂ_»P¸gÀç¤ÀªR(ðÄí¼ý2010)¡C §Y±N¦b Strategic Management Journal µoªíªº½×¤å, ¡§Does Firm Performance Reveal
its Own Causes? The Role of Bayesian Inference,¡¨ §Y¬°¤Wz¼Æ½g¸ó»â°ì¬ã¨sªººî¦X¦¨ªG¡C³o¬O¤@½g²[»\¦æ¾P¡Bµ¦²¤¡B²Õ´¡B°]°È¡B¸gÀÙ¡B¨©¤ó²Îp¡B»Põ¾ÇÅ޿誺²z½×©Ê½×¤å¡C¸Û¦p SMJ editorªº²Ä¤@¦¸¦^¨ç©Ò¨¥: ¡¨Both reviewers see
substantial potential merit in your study¡KIn sum; I think this paper has the
potential to be enormously important.¡¨ (¥»¤å¦b3rd round review³Q±µ¨ü)¡C¥»¤å¥Dn½×ÂI¬O±q¡uÄvª§Àu¶Õ³Ð³y¥ø·~»ùÈ¡vªº¦]ªG°²»¡¡A«·s±´°Q¥ø·~¸ê·½¡BÄvª§Àu¶Õ¡BºÞ²z¯à¤O¡B¤Î¥ø·~ÁZ®Ä¶¡½ÆÂø¦ÓÁô±âªº³sµ²Ãö«Y¡C õ¾Ç¤¤ºtö±À²zªº¤u¨ã¤§¤@¬O¤T¬q½×ªk(syllogism)¡A¬O¥Ñ¨âÓ¥]§t¦@³qªº©RÃD¥h±ÀÂ_±À¥X¥t¤@Ó·sªº©RÃD¡A§Y¤j«e´£¡A¤p«e´£©Mµ²½×¡C¥Hªi¯Sªº¡uÄvª§Àu¶Õ¡v(Porter, 1985: 10)¬°¨Ò¡G ¡§The fundamental basis of
above-average performance in the long run is sustainable competitive
advantage. Though a firm can have a myriad of strengths and weaknesses
vis-à-vis its competitors, there are two basic types (sources) of competitive
advantage a firm can possess: low cost or differentiation. The significance
of any strength or weakness a firm possesses is ultimately a function of its
impact on relative cost or differentiation.¡¨ ¡uÄvª§Àu¶Õ¡vªºÅÞ¿è±À²z¡A¥i¥Î¤T¬q½×ªººtö±À²z©î¸Ñ¦p¤U¡G ¤j«e´£¡G¡u«ùÄòªºÄvª§Àu¶Õ¡v³y´N¥ø·~¡u°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí²{¡v ¤p«e´£¡G¡u®t²§¤Æ¾Ô²¤¡v¯à³Ð³y©M«O«ùÄvª§Àu¶Õ µ²½×¡G ¡u®t²§¤Æ¾Ô²¤¡v¯à³y´N¥ø·~¡u°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí²{¡v ¡@¡@ ¹ï ©óªi¯Sªº¡u®t²§¤Æ¾Ô²¤¯à³y´N¥ø·~°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí²{¡vªºµ²½×¡A§ÚÌ¥i¥HÁ|Ó¹ê¨Ò¥h¤Ï»é¡C¨Ò¦p¦b¤¤°ê¡A¦pªG®t²§¤Æ³Q¥é«_¡A©ÎªÌ®t²§¤Æ¨S¦³¨ü¨ì¤¤°êªk«ßªº «OÅ@¡A¨º»ò¡u®t²§¤Æ¾Ô²¤¡v¨Ã¤£¤@©w¯à³y´N¥ø·~¡u°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí²{¡v¡C¦]¦¹¡Aªi¯S¡uÄvª§Àu¶Õ¡v²z½×¤¤¡A¡u®t²§¤Æ¾Ô²¤¯à³y´N¥ø·~°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí ²{¡vªºµ²½×¡A¥Îõ¾Çªº³N»y¡AºÙ¤§¬°¦Û©ú¤§²z (Truism) ©ÎªÌ¦Û§Ú´`Àôªº®M®MÅÞ¿è(tautology) ¡X ¦]¬°®t²§¤Æ¾Ô²¤¨Ã¤£¤@©w¯à³y´N¥ø·~°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí²{ ¡C ¡@¡@ ¬ì¾Ç½×ÃÒªº¥t¤@Ó¤èªk¬OÂk¯Ç±À²z¡A¤SºÙÂk¯ÇÅÞ¿è (Inductive logic)¡A¬O¥Ñ½×ÃÒªº«e´£¤ä´©µ²½×¡A¦ý¤£½T«Oµ²½×«í¯u ªº±À²z¹Lµ{¡C¥¦±À²zªºÅÞ¿è¬O«Ø°ò©ó§Ú̹參³õÀô¹Ò¦³ªºÆ[¹î¡A¥H¤Î¤Ï´_¦A²{ªº²{¶H¼Ò¦¡¡A¬O¤@ºØ·§²vªºµ²ªG¡C¬Û¹ï©óºtö±À²z¡AÂk¯Ç±À²z¹F¦¨ªºµ²½×¨Ã«D¥²µM»P ³Ìªìªº°²³]©RÃD¦³¬Û¦Pªº½T©wµ{«×¡C¨Ò¦p¡A¡u¤Ñ¤U¯Q¾~¤@¯ë¶Â¡vªºµ²½×©úÅã¬O¿ùªº¡A¥i¯àÁÙ¦³¨Ç¨u¨£ªºÂůQ¾~©Î¬O¶Àª÷¯Q¾~§ÚÌÁÙ¨S¦³¾÷·|Æ[¹î¨ì¡C¦P¼Ëªº¡A¡u»·Ï ¸¦¤Þ°_´ËªL¤j¤õ¡vªºµ²½×¤]¥i¯à¬O¿ùªº¡A¦]¬°¤Þ°_´ËªL¤j¤õªº¥R¤À¥²n±ø¥óÁÙ»Ýn¥]¬A¦³¤H©â·Ï¡B©â·Ïªþªñªº¯ó¤ì¬O°®Àê©ö¿Uªº¡B©â·ÏªÌªº¤f³U¥¿¦n¦³¤@¥]»·Ï©M¤@ ²°¤õ®ã¡B©Ò¦³ªº¤õ®ãÀY¬O°®Àꪺ¡B©â·Ïªþ¨S¦³±Ï¤õ³]³Æ¡C¦bÂk¯Ç±À²zÅ޿褤¡A§ÚÌ¥i¥H±À¾É¥X³\¦h¤£¦Pªºµ²½×¥h¦X²z¸ÑÄÀÃöÁpªº¯S©w«e´£¡C¦]¦¹¡AÂk¯Ç±À²zªºµ²½×¬O ¶}©ñªº¡F¦Óºtö±À²zªºµ²½×¬O«Ê³¬ªº¡C¦P¼Ëªº¡Aªi¯Sªº¡u®t²§¤Æµ¦²¤¯à³y´N¥ø·~°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí²{¡vªºµ²½×¤]¥i¯à¬O¿ùªº¡C¦b¤¤°ê¡A¥un¬F°ÓÃö«Y¨}¦n¡A§Y¨Ï µLÄvª§Àu¶Õ¤@¼Ë¥i¥H³y´N¥ø·~°ª©ó¦æ·~¤ô·ÇªºÁZ®Äªí²{¡C¬Û¹ï¦a¡A¹ý©³°õ¦æ²£«~®t²§¤Æ©Î«~µP®t²§¤Æ¾Ô²¤ªº°ê»Ú¼t°Ó¡A¥]¬A·L³n¡B«ä¬ì¡B@¦N²y¾c¡B¿Õ°ò¨È¡B¸ô©ö«Âµn¡B¥H¤Î»OÆWªºªü¨½¤s°ª¤s¯ù¡A³£¦b¬°«OÅ@¦Û¤vªº«~µP¾Ä¾Ô¡F¦]¬°¥L̦b¤¤°êªº¾P°â·~ÁZ¡A´X¥G¥þ¼Æ³Q¤s¹ëª©©Ò¨ú¥N¡C ¥»¥Nªí§@ªº¥Dn¾Ç³N°^Äm¦³¤G¡C²z½×¤W¡A¥»¬ã¨s©µ¦ù¨©¤ó»{Ãѽ×(Bayesian epistemology) Æ[ÂI¡A§å§PMichael E. Porter (1985)ªºÄvª§Àu¶Õ»PBarney(1991)¸ê·½°ò¦½×ÂI¤§¤£¨¬¡A´£Ä³°]°ÈÁZ®Ä¬°¥ø·~Ävª§Àu¶Õªº¨ãÅéªí²{¡A¨Ã«Øij¹B¥Î§ë¤J¸ê¥»³ø¹S²v¥h©î¸Ñ¤½¥qI«á¤§¾ãÅé¸ê¥»¹B¥Î¯à¤O¡A¥H±À½×¸Ó¥ø·~ºÞ²z¯à¤O»PÄvª§Àu¶Õªº¨Ó·½¡C¹êÃÒ¤W¡A¥»¤åºtö§ù¨¹«íµ¥¦¡¤§»ùȤº²[¡A¥Î¥H©w¸q¡uÄvª§Àu¶Õ³Ð³y»ùÈ¡v¬ÛÃöªº°]°È«ü¼Ð¡A§@¬°¥ø·~Àç¹B¬¡°Ê¤§¥~¦bÅé²{¡A¨Ã´¦ÅS¥ø·~¾Ö¦³¤§¿W¯Sªº¸ê·½»P¯à¤O¡C¥»¥Nªí§@¹ï¥¼¨Ó¦³Ãöµ¦²¤ºÞ²z¤§¬ã¨s¡A¦b²z½×¥H¤Î¹ê°È½×ÃÒ¡A¬Ò´£¨Ñ·s¬ã¨sijÃDªº¨ãÅé¤è¦V«ü¾É¡C |
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Last updated on April 1, 2010.
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